Gold Forecast 2012:
Buy Gold advised on 29 Dec 2011 at all
dips to $1522 for Targets $1630, $1800, $1936, $2215 - $2296.
Gold seen at $1766 on 3 Feb 2012.
3nd Jan 2012:
Gold breached 5 psychological marks in 2011 from $1500-$1900
indicating that the volatility was at the highest ever seen for
the commodity. Since the US sub-prime crisis was revealed in
2008, gold has risen from under $800 levels to above $1900 which
means a rally of nearly 150% or over $1100 in just 3 years.
Rally in gold continued with the reason changing from the US
sub-prime mortgage crisis to sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Global equity markets have lost $6.3 trillion in value this year
as Europe's debt crisis and slowing economic expansion weighed
on investor demand for riskier assets. Gold is still very bullish in the longer term & on a rebound
from dips, a small hurdle of $2,080 will definitely be hit first
with a further rise to the further final upper target range of
$2215 to $2296 by 2012 as forecasted since 2008. We have have
been highly bullish when most were conservative BUT now the
opposite seems to be true. We may now seem highly conservative
to many for our final upper target range of $2215 to $2296 by
2012, as most advisors are extra-ordinarily Bullish on Gold now
after having witnessed the super zoom from $1450 to above $1910
in a very short span of time & some are now forecasting levels
of above $3,000 to $5,000 in the immediate future. Most are
expecting Gold to rise to $10,000 also. Surprising and contrary
to many, we forecasted in the 1st week of January 2011 (last
year) that Gold and Silver inflows will increase from this year
(2012) onwards, thereby reducing their demand. Huge corrections
in these can be expected. Gold may finally end its long Bull-run
of the past (specially) 8-10 years for sometime, giving a golden
opportunity to very long-term investors.
There will be new avenues for investing later on but for
sometime, Cash may remain King. Investments in Gold will also be
wise for the next Bull-run but, after a prolonged cooling period
only.
3rd Jan 2012:
Gold futures are heading towards $1600 an ounce welcoming the
year 2012 with weakness in the US dollar and rally in oil
supporting the metal. The dollar index, which tracks the
greenback against six rival currencies, fell 0.2% to 80.083.
Gold imports by India, the world's top consumer, plunged 56% to
125 tonnes in the fourth quarter, cutting full-year imports by
8.4% as record high prices and high interest rates hit demand.
9th Nov 2011:
Gold slipped on COMEX today as risk aversion reemerged in
the London trades and the US dollar recorded swift gains. Gold
eased more than 20 dollars in intraday moves after witnessing a
very good rally in the last session. The metal had hit a six
week high yesterday. The US dollar rose today as Italian
government bond yields spiked above the crucial 7% threshold
after clearing firm Clearnet boosted margin requirements for
trading Italian debt, as per media reports. The 7% level is
widely viewed as unsustainable over the long term as the other
troubled PIIGS nations like Portugal and Greece had to seek out
bailouts after their benchmark borrowing costs broke above this
barrier.
The strength in the US dollar today was a little surprising
given that Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's prime minister announced
his imminent resignation, after critical economic reforms have
been approved in parliament. A vote on the economic stability
law, which has been demanded by the European Union, is due to
take place next week. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel also
stated today that confidence in Italy can be restored. Earlier
in the day, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
Christine Lagarde warned that that the global economy is at risk
of being plunged into a lost decade. Ms Lagarde said the ongoing
debt crisis in Europe has resulted in an uncertain outlook for
the global economy. The IMF chief noted that whilst efforts to
solve the crisis were heading in the right direction, more
needed to be done to restore confidence.
US dollar hit a one-week high of near 1.3600 against the Euro
and equities slid lower in Europe. COMEX Gold eased to a low of
$1778.80 per ounce for the December delivery and currently
quotes at $1792.50 per ounce, down $6.70 per ounce on the day.
However, the MCX Gold futures for December remained supportive
given the weak undertone in the Indian Rupee. The Rupee stumbled
lower by nearly 2% against the US dollar, breaking above the
psychological 50 mark to fresh 30 month lows. A drop in the
Rupee supported prices of the Rupee denominated commodities in
the local markets. This was seen in the movement in the MCX Gold
counters with the benchmark December contract testing highs
above Rs 29000 per 10 grams and currently quoting at Rs 28990,
up Rs 211 or 0.73% on the day.
26th Sep 2011
South Africa gold production increased by 6.4% to 47563.6
kilograms in the second quarter of 2011 when compared to first
quarter of 2011. The Chamber of Mines in South Africa mentioned
that the rise was due to better production in second quarter
overcoming the disruption in production in December due to
holidays. However, on a year on year basis the production was
down by 1.8% from second quarter of 2010.
For Chamber member gold mines, gold production grew by 6% on
a quarter-on-quarter basis to 38591.5 kilograms in the second
quarter of 2011 on the back of a 6.6% increase in tons milled,
which more than compensated for the 0.4% decline in the average
grade of gold produced per ton of ore milled.
23rd Aug 2011
Sell Gold advised at rises above $1909
till $1927 for Targets $1855, $1795, $1747, $1675, $1612, $1540
& then to $1400. If $1540 level is breached with sustained
momentum, then a decline to $1400 is unavoidable.
Gold down at $1702 on 25 August 2011
(A bounce up to $1830 alerted. Any rise above $1846 may push
Gold above $1909 again. Also advised to enter again on rises to
earlier given sell entry levels.) Gold again down at $1791 on 7
Sep 2011 from $1920 levels seen on 6 Sep.
Target 4 almost achieved---Gold down at $1629 on
23 Sep 2011 from $1920.
Gold at $1505 on 26 Sep 2011
Gold has hit a lifetime high of $1915 today on 23 Aug 2011,
a massive 45% rise from this year's low of $1317.6 on 27 January
2011 & is close to the psychological level of $2,000.
Speculative demand from investors has pushed the gold market
into a bubble of sorts that is poised to burst. A record rally
has pushed the metal to extremely overbought levels in the short
term. As of now, a correction seems inevitable & may be
just around the corner. It's still very bullish in the longer
term. In longer terms, $2,080 will definitely be hit with a
further upper target of $2215 to $2296 by mid February
to end of March 2012 as forecasted by us in the early days of 2008.
Other than the slowdown in the global economic growth,
debt default issues, loose monetary policy another major
economic factor supporting the yellow metal in the rising
inflation in the global economies. Most of the economies are
undergoing stagflation which tends to be very optimistic for
gold.
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